Predictors of two types of error. The first is a

"If he [the psychologist John Mordechai Gutman] analyzes guide gangplank an hour of conversation between guide gangplank husband guide gangplank and wife, he can predict with an accuracy of 95 percent if the couple will remain married fifteen years later. Whether he expects a couple for fifteen minutes, success is about 90 percent . recently, working with a professor named Sybil Carrera Gutman, who played with the recording, found that even if they only look at the three-minute call, they can still accurately predict perfectly who is divorced "(Malcolm guide gangplank Gladwell," at first sight "Location 231, Kindle version ).
Monash, separated in 1894 the second guide gangplank book quote Malcolm Gladwell, if true, would contain within it two things are hard to digest. This is in remarkable behavioral predictors, based on almost nothing, there are none in the social guide gangplank sciences, but more surprising is the other thing, extreme guide gangplank social determinism. Played so much you can learn about a couple of so little, but the future seems predetermined. guide gangplank No matter what happens with their children, what the impact of accumulated assets, or religious viewpoint changes, the woman does not matter if you meet a handsome colleague at the office, or man bored, bored, addicted to gambling or cleaning, married fifteen years of the first page is determined by the behavior of the pair for one hour, one day at the beginning of their marriage.
"Author of reference books successful in the world. Four books ... sold with more than 7 million copies, made him a popular lecturer collected 40 thousand dollars for a lecture and put it to the 100 most influential people in the magazine" Time "in 2005 and the prestigious list of 50 Goroai guide gangplank management of the largest all time consulting giant Accenture. "New York Times" described as Gladwell created a new genre of popular guide gangplank science books - books interpret the "mysteries of everyday life." style, combining real stories, social science research and original analysis of the effects guide gangplank human, ... ". Calcalist
"Malcolm Gladwell, guide gangplank held that the common people to succeed in their field is a magic number of 10,000 hours of training. Theory was based on flawed research and led to the popular interpretation extreme conclusions. Outcome is that now there are some people who believe that there is no such thing as talent, only persistence." "Earth"
Difficult to deal with someone like me, Malcolm Gladwell, perhaps the most important writers of popular science. The man won a medal of the American guide gangplank Sociological Association, guide gangplank received honorary degrees from the universities of Waterloo and Toronto, and received the Order of Canada. But what to do? How Zeevi general said in a recorded conversation in the middle of the night one of the leaders of Israel and the murder of crime Terry? If you need to write, I write.
I am not a psychologist and a psychologist's son Ben (hyperbole aside for the purpose of other types of proximity), and in particular do not have much interest in the psychological study of marriage, so I limit myself to discussing research behind this particular story. I have not read all the "at first sight", so I can not kill him as Richard guide gangplank Posner. I settled for reading the book's introduction, banal story, I realized that the author stated that he finds it. And half of the first episode, which I will discuss. At this point, I realized that the author apparently did not understand what he writes about.
Malcolm Gladwell writes beautifully and convincingly, and I am especially concerned about those who write beautiful and compelling, but not from H"mdiyakim ". Difficult to deal with arguments imaginable written in fluent, passable only learned and remember what they said to not true that theories atmosphere compelling book, and quoted researcher has silver hair.
We begin by asking what is the statistical prediction. Easy to succeed in predicting. guide gangplank Need only concentrate on remembering and forgetting failures successes. This way of Dray TV weather forecaster, and the like. My father used to tell the rabbi, published its ability to predict the sex of the fetus, a fee of course, and promised to return guide gangplank the money every time he made a mistake.
Suppose we have to guess if a couple will divorce within 5 years, all that is known about him is that he married just now. Naive approach means that you can flip a coin. But then, we guess the probability of success of 50%. It is better to say that he did not divorce. The chance of success will (Israel) to 92%. If it comes to the long term, the prospect of the United States that we will not be much different from a coin toss. Israel, we have still secured 75% Ahozii success.'s Not bad.
But you can Schiffer predictors when there is more information. This is the general situation. We have postcards measurements. Examples: collection of medical lab tests. Collection of evidence at the crime scene and the suspect's characteristics or different measurements of the handwritten digit. We want to use to determine if a particular thing is or will take place. Does the patient have appendicitis? Whether the suspect was in the arena? Is it number 9? Statisticians guide gangplank get measurements from a series of cases in which a well-known answer: the test results of the patients became guide gangplank clear to them if they are sick or not, the list of criminals and those who do not like this, a list of cases in which a person found that this book 9, and those known to the author did not intend to write a 9 question of statistics is How can we learn from these data about the way in which we can conclude the findings visible on the obvious answer, so that in future guide gangplank cases, we can guess the obvious answer, based on measurements of the postcards. guide gangplank Guesswork guide gangplank ("prediction") requested is dichotomous. Do put the patient into the operating room? Should I send the letter to the area where the focus starts at 9, is the offender will be prosecuted. Because he'd guide gangplank got dichotomous, there is a probability that he will be obviously guide gangplank wrong.
Some of my friends make their living finding ingenious methods to this problem, guide gangplank but it's usually done in the statistical prediction is quite simple. Computers some weighted average of the measurements, and then if the value passes a given threshold, say that the event will take place. The trick is to find the right weights. But in order to build good predictors based on a sample, have a large sample of both teams. As a larger sample, it is possible to build more complex predictors. 17 cases it is not a large sample.
Predictors of two types of error. The first is a "false alarm" was that the event will occur prediction,