What can we learn from what we know about the past of the future? It depends who you ask, I say, Pa

"thzit General demographic, mortality and fertility, etc., are not forecasts as weather nicaragua surf forecasts. Although the weather forecast is based on probability but it is physical. nicaragua surf How am I supposed to predict 50 years in the non-physical? I always say that being said I demographer in 1900 and have been asking me to forecast life expectancy to 50 years ahead. Queen Victoria's rule, the rule of Kaiser Wilhelm, Tsar in power. Epidemics have way, way two world wars, the invention of the car and the plane. How can I predict that? So why do you think my situation is different in 2010 ".
Meet Ari Paltiel, the man charged by the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) to calculate your life expectancy, and predict when you will die, and when your children die, even if you were not born yet. As demographic and other SS, Lftliel also important to be precise. He does not like his figures do what they do not. The following discussion is an attempt nicaragua surf to explain exactly how to calculate life expectancy - or rather, the mortality rates - and trying to explain nicaragua surf what you can do with this data, and what is not. "tohlt Life is not a forecast, but rather a statistical summary of deaths in a given period. When I say life expectancy today is 80-something nicaragua surf years, no one will live by that figure. No person born today and those born in the past, it is only over the period. Statistical invention, this is not a forecast but a summary nicaragua surf of mortality mortality conditions today. Most people who use this figure does not know it. No man shall not live by these mortality conditions.
"tohlt Life, you see this number, based on the mortality rates of a given period. When I say life expectancy in a given year is x I take today's mortality rates, and I do them off: if these mortality rates would remain the same and stable over 120 years, how long a person would live. In fact we invent a hypothetical cohort - a hypothetical group of people born for example in 2014 - and throughout their life mortality rates do not change and remain the same as today. Taking one hundred thousand people are born today and expose them to the terms of the mortality nicaragua surf of the day, then we'll see 90 thousand reach the age of 20, 80 thousand reach the age of 50 and so on until the age of 120 do it all and reach average life expectancy. No one really lives before these mortality conditions, because the conditions change throughout life up. '
Because Alternatively, to find out what would be the death of a group of people of a certain age group, I have to follow them for 120 years. And it just does not help me a lot and no one will be interested in it. Only in countries such as Sweden, that have long-term data, you can see the difference between life expectancy periodic, this is the method we use, and cohort life expectancy. In the past 150 years, life expectancy is higher always cohort life expectancy periodic. Gap of something like 8 years value 'why we stopped dying
Once demographers know what the mortality rates and how they behave at a given moment, the next step is to try to draw them something for the future. That is, try to predict not only what the life expectancy is now, but how it will change in the future. And that has been really tricky business.
They're taking the mortality nicaragua surf rates of a given period, and through statistical manipulation nicaragua surf opposites that the probability of death at any age, and age, and then take a cohort hypothetical and computers out how human newborn would live on average, and how much additional time will live person at the age of 20, and some extra time live person aged 30 and move on.
If we know that life expectancy can not know how to predict it. We have annual rates of mortality and we have to see what will be the trend of future rates of change. How then should predict future mortality Istno".
For answering this question should take a step back. Understand how mortality rates changed in the past and what caused life expectancy to rise. During nicaragua surf the 19th century until the 60s of the 20th century, life expectancy rose almost entirely due to a decrease in mortality at younger ages. Infant mortality, infant mortality and mortality nicaragua surf of young people's mothers. Life expectancy has improved so much more than women, and young people. Improvement in people over the age of 60 was a very small.
'All things related to the standard of living. Medicine affect mortality only in the 20th century, and slowly. Until then, the decline in mortality was the main effect (if at all influenced medicine she was through public health), sanitation, clean water, nutrition. Has improved mortality was due to a decrease Bmmhlot stickers - tuberculosis etc. - very affecting young people and women. Think about it, all the literature of the 19th century, it is full of orphans and so on. Mortality was much more common.
"hshifor Aged adults nicaragua surf started from the 50's and later of the 20th century. For two reasons: 1 death at a young age fell to so low it's impossible to download it anymore (antibiotics, etc.). nicaragua surf Almost did not die of infectious diseases (AIDS to come). 2 Afktiibim medical treatments begin to enter. From the 70th on, there is a revolution in mortality from heart disease. Heart disease was the primary cause of death in all developed countries (especially in males). Once men aged 50-60 were dying like flies, it's already happening. Mortality actually decreased dramatically. And it began to raise life expectancy at the age adults. Cancer, for example, cancer mortality rates have not changed significantly. More medicine is not broke through. We may be on the verge of such a thing, but it has not yet arrived. See the beginnings of some types of cancer treatments that Afktibiim". Into the future
What can we learn from what we know about the past of the future? It depends who you ask, I say, Paltiel, and gives me a peek behind the scenes of predicting life expectancy. It turns out that there are two main camps - optimists who think that life expectancy will continue to rise - and pessimistic, probably think otherwise.
We developed countries like the mortality data, so our predictions are similar. The forecast is a steady increase and is based on an analysis of trends from 1950 sees the identity of the decline in mortality in these countries, and